As COP29 begins today in Baku, Azerbaijan, world leaders, climate activists, and negotiators will gather from 11 to 22 November 2024 to shape the global response to the ever-worsening climate crisis. The stakes are higher than ever, with urgent decisions needed to address climate finance, emissions reductions, and adaptation to climate impacts. Let’s cut to the chase, here’s an in-depth look at what COP29 has in store and why it’s a critical moment for the future of our planet.

The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the supreme decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since 1995, COP has served as the primary global forum where nations negotiate and implement measures to combat climate change. Nearly every country on Earth is represented, alongside scientists, NGOs, business leaders, and civil society organisations.

COP is where the world’s most critical climate agreements have been forged, including the 2015 Paris Agreement. This legally binding treaty set the ambitious goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with efforts to stay under 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement requires countries to submit and regularly update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — plans outlining how they will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Why is COP Important?

COP is essential because it provides a global platform for tackling climate change collaboratively. Climate impacts do not respect borders, and without international cooperation, efforts to mitigate the worst effects of global warming would be ineffective. COP allows nations to share responsibilities, set collective targets, and ensure accountability through transparent mechanisms.

Furthermore, COP is where crucial decisions on climate finance, adaptation, and loss and damage are made. Developing nations, which bear the brunt of climate change but contribute the least to global emissions, rely on these forums to push for financial support from wealthier nations and to demand that global climate action be equitable.

The Two Main Pillars of COP29

This year, the two main pillars of COP29 reflect Azerbaijan’s focus on ensuring that climate goals are met through both increased ambition and actionable solutions:

1. Enhancing Ambition: COP29 seeks to ensure that all parties commit to ambitious national plans and increase transparency in tracking and reporting climate action. Countries are expected to raise their climate targets in alignment with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
2. Enabling Action: The second pillar is about turning ambition into action, particularly through finance. This means using climate finance to support emission reductions, adaptation efforts, and loss and damage recovery for vulnerable nations.

Azerbaijan’s COP29 Presidency is structured to focus on these two pillars, while addressing key topics like climate finance, transparency, the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (which governs carbon markets). Nearly 200 Parties will convene to accelerate progress toward keeping global warming below 1.5°C.

Additionally, COP29 will review the Global Stocktake findings, which assess the collective progress on adaptation, mitigation, and just transition efforts. This review is essential for guiding countries toward more effective climate action in the future.The conference will also see the 19th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 19) and the 6th Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA 6). These meetings will finalise discussions on the enhanced transparency framework and establish a new collective finance goal, which is expected to support the implementation of climate policies worldwide.

Reflecting on COP28: Progress and Controversies

COP28, held in Dubai, UAE, in 2023, was a critical moment in the global climate agenda. The summit achieved significant milestones but was also overshadowed by controversies that brought the fossil fuel industry’s influence into sharp focus.

One of the central achievements of COP28 was the formalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, a pivotal step for developing nations. After years of negotiations, this fund was designed to provide financial assistance to countries suffering from the irreversible impacts of climate change—such as extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and long-term degradation of natural ecosystems. This was a major victory for vulnerable nations that have long demanded financial reparations for climate-related damages they disproportionately face. However, operational details of the fund, such as how it would be financed and distributed, were left to be worked out in future negotiations, leaving high expectations for COP29 to finalise these crucial arrangements.

In addition to the Loss and Damage Fund, COP28 also saw countries reaffirming their commitment to the Paris Agreement, with discussions around enhancing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The nations involved reiterated the need to move away from fossil fuels, with ambitious plans to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and phase out fossil fuel subsidies. This was in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, which called for urgent reductions in emissions to keep global warming under 1.5°C.

Despite these positive developments, COP28 was mired in controversy, largely due to the role of Sultan Al Jaber, the summit’s president and CEO of the UAE’s national oil company, Adnoc. His dual role as both a climate envoy and head of an oil giant raised concerns about conflicts of interest. Leaked documents revealed that Al Jaber had used COP28 as a platform to promote oil and gas deals with other countries, casting doubt on the summit’s credibility. The UAE was accused of exploiting the event for its national interests, particularly in pushing forward fossil fuel agendas at a time when the global focus was meant to be on transitioning to cleaner energy.

This scandal sparked widespread outrage, particularly from climate activists and developing nations that had hoped for stronger commitments to phase out fossil fuels. It also raised fundamental questions about the appropriateness of having individuals with deep ties to the fossil fuel industry chair such pivotal global climate discussions. While some progress was made in curbing fossil fuel subsidies, critics argued that the influence of oil-producing nations was still too strong and that more decisive action was needed to address the root causes of the climate crisis.

Further complicating matters, negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which concerns international carbon markets, remained contentious. Countries struggled to agree on how to regulate carbon trading schemes and ensure they contributed meaningfully to reducing emissions rather than allowing large polluters to offset their emissions without making real reductions. The debate highlighted the challenges of balancing economic interests with climate imperatives, leaving some aspects unresolved and pushing the more complex decisions to COP29.

Lastly, gender and climate issues took centre stage at COP28, with renewed emphasis on the Gender Action Plan (GAP). This plan, originally established at COP23, aims to integrate gender equality into climate action, recognising that women are disproportionately affected by climate impacts. However, while the summit made some progress on gender inclusivity, many activists felt that concrete actions were still lacking, with gender-focused policies remaining largely aspirational.

Controversy at COP29: A Spotlight on Fossil Fuel Deals

Unfortunately, COP29 is already facing its own controversy. Just days before the summit, an undercover investigation by the campaign group Global Witness revealed that Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister and chief executive of COP29, had been filmed agreeing to facilitate fossil fuel deals at the climate conference. Posing as a fake oil and gas group, Global Witness approached Soltanov, who was recorded discussing how the fake company could sponsor the event in exchange for investment opportunities with SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company.

In the recordings, Soltanov referred to natural gas as a “transitional fuel” and suggested that fossil fuel production might continue “perhaps for ever,” despite global commitments to phase out such industries. He also discussed waiving the climate requirements for event sponsors, allowing the fake company to bypass commitments to reduce emissions and still gain access to key stakeholders in Azerbaijan’s energy sector.

This revelation has intensified calls from climate campaigners to ban fossil fuel lobbyists from future COP events. The UNFCCC, which oversees COP, has strict guidelines that officials should not use their roles for personal gain, and this scandal has further undermined trust in the integrity of COP29’s leadership. The controversy mirrors the scandal at COP28, where leaked documents showed similar efforts to promote fossil fuel deals under the guise of climate diplomacy.

Key Priorities for COP29

1. Setting a New Global Climate Finance Target

One of the top priorities at COP29 is establishing a new climate finance target for 2025 and beyond. The current commitment of $100 billion per year is inadequate, and negotiators are under pressure to not only increase the financial pledges but also improve the accessibility and impact of these funds. Private sector mobilisation will play a critical role in bridging the financing gap, but the debate will also focus on ensuring fair contributions from wealthier nations and addressing both mitigation and adaptation needs.

2. Boosting Ambitions on National Climate Plans

With the 2025 deadline for submitting Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) rapidly approaching, COP29 will push for greater ambition. This summit marks the start of a new cycle within the Paris Agreement’s ‘ratchet’ mechanism, requiring countries to raise their climate commitments every five years. Discussions will focus on ensuring countries commit to phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up renewable energy capacity threefold by 2030, building on the language agreed upon at COP28.

3. Loss and Damage Fund: Moving from Talk to Action

The Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP28, is expected to take centre stage at COP29. After a year of groundwork, including the selection of the Philippines as the host for the fund’s board, COP29 will aim to finalise the arrangements that will allow the fund to begin delivering financial support to vulnerable nations. Discussions will also address the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), which provides support for countries dealing with climate impacts that go beyond what can be adapted to. Strengthening the coordination between the Loss and Damage Fund, WIM, and other support mechanisms will be critical in making this funding effective.

4. From Adaptation Planning to Implementation

Last year’s summit established a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation, urging countries to formulate National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) by 2025. COP29 will focus on moving from planning to implementation, providing guidance on how countries can implement these plans effectively. Adaptation finance will also be a key topic, with negotiators expected to push for increased funding for adaptation initiatives alongside mitigation efforts.

5. Addressing the Linkages Between Climate, Nature, and Cities

2024 is a ‘triple COP’ year, with COP29 for climate change, COP16 for biodiversity, and COP16 for desertification all taking place. This convergence offers an unprecedented opportunity to address the interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation. The outcomes of these summits will influence global strategies for sustainable development, with a particular focus on empowering local governments to take ambitious climate action. Cities, which are on the frontline of climate impacts, will play a crucial role in the discussions, especially in securing access to climate finance to enhance urban resilience.

Looking Ahead: A Defining Moment for Global Climate Action

COP29 is not just another climate conference—it’s a pivotal moment for setting the course of global climate action in the coming years. With trust in the leadership of the event already eroded by scandals, the decisions made at this summit will be under intense scrutiny. Whether it’s finalising the Loss and Damage Fund, setting a new climate finance goal, or addressing the influence of the fossil fuel industry, the world is watching closely.

As the climate crisis intensifies, the pressure is on for global leaders to deliver more than just promises. The outcome of COP29 will determine whether the world can rise to the challenge of keeping global warming below 1.5°C and securing a sustainable, equitable future for all.

FEATURED IMAGE: Sergei Grits/AP