What to Expect at COP28

The battle against climate change is one that transcends borders and requires a united global effort. For decades, the Conference of the Parties (COP) has been at the forefront of this international endeavour, serving as a crucial platform for nations to collaborate, negotiate, and set targets in the fight against climate change. As we stand on the precipice of COP28, it’s essential to reflect on the history of this pivotal conference, examine the outcomes of its predecessor, COP27, and anticipate the key discussions that will shape the future of our planet.

The origins of COP can be traced back to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), established in 1992. The primary objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. Recognising the need for concerted global efforts, the Conference of the Parties was created as the supreme decision-making body of the UNFCCC. The inaugural COP meeting took place in Berlin in 1995, setting the stage for a series of annual conferences that would shape the climate agenda for years to come.

But why is COP so important?

COP plays a pivotal role in the global response to climate change for several reasons. Firstly, it provides a platform for countries to discuss and negotiate international agreements aimed at mitigating climate change and adapting to its effects. The Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement are among the landmark agreements that originated from COP negotiations.

Secondly, COP serves as a forum for countries to showcase their climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These commitments outline the steps each nation intends to take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance resilience to climate impacts. The transparency and accountability fostered by COP ensure that nations are held accountable for their promises, driving a collective effort to achieve global climate goals.

COP27: A Recap

To understand the trajectory of COP28, it’s essential to reflect on the outcomes of COP27. Last year’s conference, held in a climate-charged atmosphere in Egypt, witnessed both victories and challenges. One of the notable achievements was the establishment of a dedicated fund for loss and damage, recognising the urgent need to address the escalating impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities.

Five key outcomes emerged from COP27, reflecting the collective efforts of nations to address the urgent challenges posed by climate change. These outcomes included:

1. Establishing a Dedicated Fund for Loss and Damage

The conclusion of COP27 marked a significant milestone with the approval of a groundbreaking agreement aimed at offering financial support for countries particularly susceptible to the severe impacts of climate-related events such as floods, droughts, and other disasters. This landmark decision garnered widespread acclaim due to its historical significance.

Notably, it represents the first instance where nations acknowledged the imperative requirement for financial resources to address the aftermath of climate change-induced loss and damage. Furthermore, there was consensus on the establishment of a dedicated fund, along with the necessary funding mechanisms.

2. Maintaining a Clear Intention to Keep 1.5°C Within Reach

At COP27, there was a resolute commitment among attendees to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, reflecting a collective acknowledgment of the severity of the climate crisis. Recognising the dire consequences associated with surpassing this temperature threshold, countries reaffirmed their dedication to this goal, emphasising the urgent need for immediate and substantial action.

To achieve the objective of limiting the temperature increase, the global economy must engage in climate change mitigation. Essentially, this involves reducing or preventing the emission of greenhouse gases to align with the scientific targets set for 2030. In response to this imperative, a mitigation work programme was established in Sharm el-Sheikh. This programme aims to urgently enhance both the ambition and implementation of mitigation efforts. Commencing immediately, the work programme is scheduled to continue until 2026, at which point a review will be conducted to assess the possibility of extending its duration.

3. Holding Businesses and Institutions to Account

COP27 sent a strong message to businesses and institutions, urging them to take responsibility for their environmental impact. The emphasis on accountability, transparency, and sustainable practices signifies a paradigm shift towards a more environmentally conscious and responsible global economy.

4. Mobilising More Financial Support for Developing Countries

During COP27, a pivotal step towards climate justice was taken with a commitment to mobilise additional financial support for developing countries. This support is vital for these nations as they strive to embark on ambitious climate action, adapt to evolving conditions, and transition to sustainable development pathways.

The Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan, a significant component of COP27, underscores the necessity of a global shift towards a low-carbon economy, estimating the need for annual investments ranging from USD 4–6 trillion. Achieving such funding levels requires a prompt and thorough transformation of the financial system, involving governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors, and other financial actors.

A notable outcome of the decisions made regarding climate finance is the appeal for developed country Parties to contribute resources for the second replenishment of the Green Climate Fund. The collective endorsement of recent pledges to the Adaptation Fund (totaling USD 211.58 million), the Least Developed Countries Fund (totaling 70.6 million), and the Special Climate Change Fund (totaling 35.0 million) was welcomed by all countries involved.

5. Making the Pivot Toward Implementation

COP27 underscored the imperative of moving beyond mere rhetoric and translating climate commitments into concrete actions. The emphasis on implementation marks a significant shift in paradigm, urging nations to transform their climate action plans into tangible realities, thereby facilitating genuine and measurable progress in the global battle against climate change. The transition to implementation, as highlighted in the decisions adopted at COP27, is characterised by a robust focus on strengthening countries’ actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change. Additionally, there is a concerted effort to enhance support in terms of finance, technology, and capacity building for developing nations.

A noteworthy aspect of COP27’s resolutions is the commitment of nations to pursue a transition towards ambitious, just, and equitable low-emission and climate-resilient development. Taking it a step further, COP27 decided to establish a work programme specifically dedicated to ‘just transition.’ This initiative is anticipated to build upon and complement ongoing efforts to urgently scale up both mitigation ambition and implementation measures. In essence, the emphasis on implementation at COP27 signifies a collective determination to go beyond verbal assurances and take meaningful steps towards addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

COP28: What’s on the agenda?

The upcoming COP28, which is happening from November 30 to December 12, 2023, is set to take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE). The primary focus of discussions during the summit is anticipated to centre around expediting the transition to cleaner energy sources while reducing reliance on coal, oil, and gas. There is an expectation that participating countries will commit to the global objective of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, with an increasing number advocating for the gradual elimination of fossil fuels.

However, scepticism looms among many observers regarding the ability of a petrostate like the UAE, serving as the host for this year’s conference, to successfully broker an agreement that swiftly moves away from traditional fossil fuels.

For COP28, the UAE has endorsed four main pillars: 

1. Energy Transition 

A coalition, spearheaded by the United States and the European Union (EU) and comprising more than sixty countries, aims to advocate for a commitment to triple the global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Simultaneously, the coalition is collaborating with high-emission sectors to enhance the deployment of decarbonisation technology. This involves the expansion of low-carbon hydrogen, hastening the progress of carbon capture and storage, and eliminating methane emissions altogether.

2. Framework For A New Deal On Climate Finance

The ongoing challenge of advancing climate action is primarily attributed to insufficient critical investments. During the COP27 summit last year, nations collectively committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. According to the United Nations, fulfilling this objective necessitates annual investments of $4 to $6 trillion in renewable energy and associated infrastructure until 2030. Despite a positive development in the first half of 2023, with a 22 percent increase in renewable energy investments (totaling $358 billion) compared to the previous year’s outset, this progress remains just a fraction of the funding required to bridge the existing gap.

At the upcoming conference, additional objectives include rallying multilateral development banks to enhance incentives for private sector engagement in climate-related projects. There is also a focus on strengthening accountability and adherence measures for the private sector to meet net-zero commitments. Additionally, there is a proposal to establish common standards for voluntary carbon markets, particularly in response to recent reports exposing fraudulent carbon offset programmes.

3. Putting Nature, People, Lives And Livelihoods At The Heart Of Climate Action

Enhancing climate resilience and promoting sustainable development in lower-income countries will be a crucial focus at COP28. This includes commitments to address biodiversity loss and implement sustainable farming practices. Despite initial pledges of approximately $300 million from several European nations to the Loss and Damage Fund—an essential financial mechanism for climate resilience—this year’s COP aims to address unresolved aspects of the fund. Key issues to be tackled include determining the fund’s financiers, the manner of financing, and establishing eligibility criteria for countries seeking support from the fund. Additionally, the summit aims to put into action the Global Goal on Adaptation, a framework outlined in the Paris Agreement to gauge countries’ advancements in adapting to climate change.

4.  Mobilise For The Most Inclusive Cop

Expanding upon the establishment of the “youth envoy” position during COP27, aimed at elevating the voices of young individuals in climate conversations, the upcoming conference will extend invitations to youth delegates hailing from island nations and economically disadvantaged countries. It is noteworthy that within significant multilateral organisations, there is often a lack of representation for young people, Indigenous communities, local leaders, as well as women and other gender minorities. Paradoxically, these groups are particularly susceptible to and adversely affected by the impacts of climate change.

COP stands as a testament to the global community’s commitment to addressing the climate crisis. As COP28 approaches, the world awaits the outcomes of discussions that will shape the future of climate action. The lessons learned from COP27 provide a foundation for building stronger international cooperation and accelerating efforts to transition to a sustainable and resilient future for our planet.